Correlation and Causation and Intelligence
Feb. 5th, 2022 09:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
coffeedaivSo. Wednesday Night D&D game (Dark Academia theme with Coffee), I am playing a Dwarf Druid Barista. We have, so far, encountered a Ghost, an attack by haunted swords and armor, a human sacrifice, and a massive disruption in the way history is to be studied. Character is proceeding from the assumption that the ghost and sacrifice are related to each other, as well as to the disruption represented by the changes in the study of history. After all, it all happened more or less at the same time, right? Correlation equals Causation.
And the thing is, Daiv knows perfectly well it does not. At best, it is not that simple.
But Dobson the Druid is... maybe not as smart as Daiv? 12 Intelligence, so a bit above average. Also, there is a huge cultural shift in perspective, from Me as a player and Me as a character. Which is what I am trying to simulate, and having immense fun exploring.
One aspect of that is that Dwarves are inherently traditional, to a nearly fanatical degree. We do this because we are Dwarves. We are Dwarves because we do this. Of course, I am also playing a youngest of many children, and as such, a bit of a non traditionalist. I like to question the traditional application of tradition.
Also, things like Ghosts and Magic are, to some degree, a constant everyday reality. Dobson can turn into animals, or summon a Raven named Fitz (who wears a small tricorn hat, per tradition), and can do other magical things. In a world with Fireballs and Disintegration spells, what are the assumptions about correlation and causation?
And, as noted, I think Daiv is a bit smarter than Dobson. One of the things I note about Intelligence is that people who are smart tend not to realize that they are above average (not that I have studied it a great deal, of course). But the Dunning Kruger effect (which I was able to find the name of by googling "you don't know how stupid you are"), I think, goes both ways, to a degree. I mean, Stephen Hawking pretty clearly knew he was ... smart. But the average somewhat above average intelligence folks maybe not so much. And it is not as though we have found a really good way of measuring intelligence, certainly not across broad swathes of people (last I checked, anyway).
So. Dobson is slightly above average. Daiv is maybe a bit above that. Daiv knows correlation does not equal causation. Does Dobson? Or, when two (possibly three?) disruptive events occur at the same time in the same place, why not assume they are connected?
On the other hand, is that not a bit of metagaming? Daiv also knows Dobson is a character in a story, so OF course these events have some degree of connection. Unless the GM is just throwing us three unrelated mysteries, any one of which may be a red herring.
I am going to have fun figuring it out.
And the thing is, Daiv knows perfectly well it does not. At best, it is not that simple.
But Dobson the Druid is... maybe not as smart as Daiv? 12 Intelligence, so a bit above average. Also, there is a huge cultural shift in perspective, from Me as a player and Me as a character. Which is what I am trying to simulate, and having immense fun exploring.
One aspect of that is that Dwarves are inherently traditional, to a nearly fanatical degree. We do this because we are Dwarves. We are Dwarves because we do this. Of course, I am also playing a youngest of many children, and as such, a bit of a non traditionalist. I like to question the traditional application of tradition.
Also, things like Ghosts and Magic are, to some degree, a constant everyday reality. Dobson can turn into animals, or summon a Raven named Fitz (who wears a small tricorn hat, per tradition), and can do other magical things. In a world with Fireballs and Disintegration spells, what are the assumptions about correlation and causation?
And, as noted, I think Daiv is a bit smarter than Dobson. One of the things I note about Intelligence is that people who are smart tend not to realize that they are above average (not that I have studied it a great deal, of course). But the Dunning Kruger effect (which I was able to find the name of by googling "you don't know how stupid you are"), I think, goes both ways, to a degree. I mean, Stephen Hawking pretty clearly knew he was ... smart. But the average somewhat above average intelligence folks maybe not so much. And it is not as though we have found a really good way of measuring intelligence, certainly not across broad swathes of people (last I checked, anyway).
So. Dobson is slightly above average. Daiv is maybe a bit above that. Daiv knows correlation does not equal causation. Does Dobson? Or, when two (possibly three?) disruptive events occur at the same time in the same place, why not assume they are connected?
On the other hand, is that not a bit of metagaming? Daiv also knows Dobson is a character in a story, so OF course these events have some degree of connection. Unless the GM is just throwing us three unrelated mysteries, any one of which may be a red herring.
I am going to have fun figuring it out.
